ZYen:Long Finance Forum of Futurists (L3F)
Inspired by the Long Finance initiative, L3F will formulate scenarios for the future of finance and then draw out the near term implications for the various parts of the Financial Services industry, such as Insurance, Investment Banking, Retail Banking, Pensions, etc. The intention is that these scenarios be exposed to wider comment and then used as the basis for financial services organisations to make better decisions in the near to medium term, based on better views of the future.
The Long Finance Futurists’ Forum has kicked off its activities by taking a view from 1930 – what would investment advisors have advised then? Why? How did they do? Read the thinkpiece Where Shall I Invest? to find out more.
We will next tackle the view from 2010 to 2050 – what will shape the value of investments and hence the implications for the financial services industry. If you would like to join us, email to email@example.com or post your comments on this wiki.
Scenarios to 2050 - 16 February 2011 - Barnard's Inn Hall, London
On February 16 a group of experts gathered at Barnard’s Inn Hall in the City for a two hour workshop to plan scenarios to 2050 for financial services. The aim of the session was to identify the drivers of change of the next 40 years; consider the implications of current uncertainties for the future; and identify common themes between different scenarios by considering a range of possibilities about how those scenarios might pan out.
After an introduction by Gill the groups got to work – the resulting scenarios ranged from fairly benign to verging on the apocalyptic! Some saw a world dominated by corporate monopolies (one pharmaceuticals company, one arms company, one energy company etc) with a free market at the bottom and not a lot in between. In this world the financial services become almost redundant given that retail services would operate on a transactional level alone – so the advice to financial services professionals would be either to join a corporate or... the civil service.
Another scenario saw the rise of IT and telecoms – given that banks are essentially messaging systems – where people could earn a higher rate of interest on the cash in their SIM card than that in their bank. The current indicators of this potential scenario included the already ubiquitous use of mobile phones to transfer money in Africa.
The outcomes of the workshop will be written up in a white paper due to be published in spring/summer 2011, with the complete publication due in autumn 2011 under the Long Finance Eternal Brevities series.
The future of finance - 20 September 2010 - Guildhall, London
As part of the Long Finance Foundation’s programme, the Long Finance Forum of Futurists (L3F) is developing scenarios for the global economy and society, and the implications for financial services in the immediate future. The sectors to be considered include insurance, asset management, banking, and professional services.
The Forum has created outline scenarios for 2030 and for 2050, and exposed them for testing, refining and development on 20th September, at Guildhall, before the Long Finance Autumn conference.
The event was an opportunity to both contribute to the long-term thinking of finance as well as to work with peers in a stimulating environment. Read more.
Martin Duckworth (SAMI Consulting)
Ilaria Frau-Hipps (University of Cambridge)
Michael Mainelli (Z/Yen)
Gill Ringland (SAMI Consulting)
Chris Skinner (F S Club)
Richard Walsh (SAMI Consulting)
Chris Yapp (University of Warwick)